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Marc Chandler (Click to enlarge) We have often noted how well the U.S.-German 2-year interest rate differential tracks the euro-dollar exchange rate. This Great Graphic , we composed on Bloomberg, shows the dollar against the euro in white and the 2-year interest rate differential between the U.S. and Germany in yellow. For our purposes here, we inverted the euro-dollar exchange rate from how it is traditionally quoted so to be more intuitively in line with the rate differential. As the U.S. premium over Germany rises so too does the dollar rise against the euro. The opposite is also true. In recent weeks the U.S. premium Complete Story » More...
Marc Chandler The Indian rupee has fallen to new record lows against the U.S. dollar today. While the rupee's 1.8% slide against the greenback is the largest since Sept '11, it represents continuation of the trend that started in May. Indeed in the first three months of the year, the rupee was among the strongest of the emerging market currencies, gaining about 1.3% against the dollar. It was bolstered by foreign inflows into India's stock markets and the belief that Federal Reserve's QE was going to keep risk assets, including emerging markets well supported. Two things have happened. First, the market has begun anticipating the end of QE and this has seen U.S. rates rise and an unwind of some of the flows to emerging markets. Second, there has been a deterioration of India's macroeconomi
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EURJPY- With the cross halting its decline on Friday and following through higher during Monday trading today, there is risk of continued upside recovery. This should open the door for more strength towards the 131.40 level, its Jun 05’2013 high followed by the 132.07 level and ultimately its year-to-date high at the 133.81 level. Its daily RSI has turned higher supporting this view. On further downside, support comes in at the 129.06 level where a violation if seen will turn focus to the 126.15 level. We may see a halt here but if broken expect the cross to weaken further towards the 125.50 level and then the 125.00 level. All in all, the cross remains biased to the upside in the medium term.
Ralph Shell Friday's NFP report came in better than expected - 175K new jobs in May - although there was a reduction in the April number. U.S. equity markets were impressed, and the Dow closed over 200 higher. The theory that good employment news would cause the Fed to come closer to the day when they would taper off the size of their bond purchases, and thereby cause equities to sell off, was flawed today. The bond market had a different take on the number, tacking on ten basis points to a 2.17 yield on the 10-year. The unemployment rate was a tick higher, 7.6% caused by a minor increase in the participation rate to 63.4%. The report gave ambivalent information. While the total unemployment rate went up, the U-6 unemployment rate went down to 13.8%. Manufacturing jobs were reduced by 8K j
Marc Chandler Most countries report economic data over a course of a month. China releases most of it in a couple of days and this weekend was such a period. To summarize, China reported weaker imports and exports, but a larger overall trade surplus, lower inflation and weaker bank lending. Industrial output, retail sales and fixed asset investment were in line with expectations and suggests the world's second largest economy is expanding in line with the first quarter pace of 7.7%. The government targets 7.5% growth this year and is unlikely to provide fresh stimulus for the economy. China reported the May trade surplus widened to $20.43 billion from $18.16 billion in April. China's trade data is among the most controversial of its reports. The government recognizes that the trade account
EURUSD: While the pair is bullish in the short term, it will have to decisively break and hold above the 1.3242 level to create scope for more. A cut through this level will resume its medium term uptrend and call for more strength towards the 1.3300 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 1.3400 level and then the 1.3450 level. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. On the downside, support comes in at 1.3150 level followed by the 1.3050 level and then the 1.3000 level. Below here will aim at the 1.2900 level. All in all, EUR continues to retain its medium term upside bias.
Cliff Wachtel EURUSD Outlook: Short term neutral/bullish, longer term bearish The main long term EURUSD driver Reasons behind recent EURUSD rally Technical Picture Coming week likely EURUSD drivers and what makes them influential Longer term the USD outlook remains bullish as long as the Fed continues to appear hawkish relative to the ECB, BoJ, BoE, RBA, and other leading central banks. Belief that the Fed was indeed the only one moving towards a meaningful tightening has been the fuel of the USD rally. Other considerations were short term or minor. Over the past week, that longer term USD rally has been undermined by a variety of factors, including: Overcrowded USD Long Trade: Those expectations of Fed hawkishness created an overcrowded USD long position that was vulnerable to any disappo
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